ქართ | Eng

ISSN 2449-2396 (Print) | E ISSN 2449-2612 (Online)

THE SIGNAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY: INDICATORS APPROACH

Author: BAZHENOVA OLENA V., CHORNODID IHOR S. | Published: 2018-06-25 | Pages: 90-95

Full Text

Abstract

In the paper, the signal system of Ukraine’s economy external sustainability is considered. For this purpose it is pre- sented the Ukraine’s economy external sustainability indicators system that consists of 40 indicators that are divided into five groups: macroeconomic indicators; indicators, characterizing the current account position; indicators, characterizing the capital account position; debt indicators and indicators,characterizing the influence of the external sector.

Based on the signal approach, the threshold percentiles, the probabilities of instability occurrence due to external disturbances and the noise-signal ratio for each indicator of external sustainability for the Ukrainian economy are calcu- lated. 

The results of the noise-signal ratio calculations showed that their values for 21 indicators are quite high but less than one. Based on analysis of indicators’ signals, there is a clear tendency  of  more  accurate  identification  of  the  volatility since 2008. 

For the overwhelming majority of indicators the proba- bilities of an unstable situation arising due to the signal from the indicator are high and exceed 50%. The probability of an unstable situation occurring without indicators’ signals for   all external sustainability indicators except one also exceeds 50%. In addition to it for each of the five groups of indicators and the indicators’ system in a whole the average probabilities of unstable situation occurrence is calculated under the condition of a signal from indicators and without it.


Keywords

EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY, INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY, SIGNAL APPROACH, THRESHOLD PERCENTILES


References

Assessing Sustainability (2002). International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Department. SM/02/166. Retrieved fromhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/sus/2002/eng/ 052802.htm 
Debt- and Reserve-related Indicators of External Vulnerability (2002). International Monetary Fund. March 23. Retrieved from http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/debtres
Debt Indicators. International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions. INTOSAI. ISSAI 5411. Retrieved from http://www. issai.org/en_us/site-issai/issai-framework/4-auditing-guidelines.htm 
Flassbeck, H. andPanizza, U. (2008). Debt Sustainability and Debt Composition. Workshop on Debt, Finance and Emerging Issues in Financial Integration. 8-9 April.Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/events/2008debtworkshop/papers/Flass- beck-Panizza-Paper.pdf
Goldstein, M., Kaminsky, G.L. and C. Reinhart (2000). Assessing Financial Vulnerability. An early warning system for emerging markets, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
Horne, J. (1988). Criteria of External Sustainability. IMF Working Paper. July 11, 1988, p.1-26. Retrieved fromhttp://ssrn.com/ abstract=884879.
InternationalDebtStatistics.Retrieved from http://datatopics.worldbank.org/debt/ids/ country/ukr#void 
International Financial Statistics. Retrieved from http://data.imf.org/?sk=7CB6619C-CF87-48DC-9443-2973E161ABEB Kaminsky, G. (1998). Currency and banking crises: a composite leading indicator. Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System, Washington DC
Kaminsky, G.(1999). Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress. IMF Working Paper 178. December. Re-   trieved fromhttps://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp99178.pdf 
Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C. (1998). Leading indicators of currency crises. IMF staff papers Vol.45. No 1, March, Р.1-48. Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C. (2000). On crises, contagion, and confusion. Journal of International Economic. 51 (1),P.145–168. Karmarkar,Y.and Vani,S. (2014). EarlyWarningSignalSystemforEconomicCrisis: AThresholdandIndicatorsApproach. PacificBusi- nessReviewInternationalVolume 6, Issue 8, February, Р.60-70.Retrieved fromhttp://www.pbr.co.in/March2014/11.pdf 
World Development Indicators Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/ data/reports.aspx? source=wdi-database-ar- chives-%28beta%29#
Wyplosz, C. (2007). Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives.Retrieved fromhttp://ideas.repec. org/p/gii/giihei/heiwp03-2007.html.

Globalization & Business European University European University European University mes.gov.ge erih plus mes.gov.ge EBSCO index copernicus Google Scholar Crossref Open Academic Journals Index Scientific Indexing Services International Scientific Indexing Daugavpils University